If you want change, you've got to show it!

Jareya (below) has raised a very good question: how can we influence the government to change, meaning to by applying scenarios. Why don't you think about taking this further. Why don't you demonstrate how it can be done. This is a good thesis topic: how can scenarios be applied in a small-scale management of environment and natural resources?

How to get a community, nation, region, world as a whole to accept a preferred scenario?

How to get a community, nation, region, world as a whole to accept a preferred scenario?

UNEP proposed the multiple scenarios as several alternatives. I think UNEP offered the opportunities;

• to give more sense of how different trends and countertrends might unfold and interact
• to allow for some test of the robustness of policy and strategy conclusions across different paths of development
• to challenge received wisdom by demonstrating the plausibility of several diverse futures
• to introduce substantially different "worldviews" concerning what drivers of change are and how they are related together.

I think four scenarios; Market first, Security first, Policy First, Sustainability first, are interesting scenarios. But, the question is how to get a community, nation, region, world as a whole to accept the policies necessary for a preferred scenario?

As Steven Pinker said “The world’s staggering problems won’t be solved by singing pop songs, denouncing villains, or adopting the proper moral tone, but by figuring out which policies have the best chance of doing the most good.”

For example, if the Thai Government wants to implement policy toward a Sustainability First scenario (which is the preferred scenario in term of decreasing CO₂, atmospheric concentrations of CO₂, temperature, for example), how the Thai government could persuade business sector, which prefer a Market First scenario (current trend; if every country follows this scenario CO₂ emissions is the worst).

If I were one of the Thai Government members, I would discuss the good and bad of both scenarios with the representative of different sectors and policy options to achieve an agreed approach.

What is your preferred scenario? How can you persuade your community, nation, region, world to follow policies under that scenario?

Noosphere Scenario

The principal problem with the scenarios posed under GEO3, is that the UN still remains a relatively weak organization which is primarily dominated by the US and other developed nations. The scenarios in GEO3 are posed under a world order where there is some ability to govern globalization through a strong international organization.  The UN has not been able to effectively enforce very basic policies and programmes.  The report mentions the Global Compact, which is a voluntary initiative.  In Thailand and in many nations it has essentially accomplished nothing, but a rewriting of corporate social responsibility activities relative by member companies.  It also may be viewed as the UN supporting various multinational corporations.

I propose a scenario with the Noosphere as a driver, that is global consciousness or intelligence which surrounds the ecosphere.  In this scenario, the world recognizes evidence of GAIA, that is a living earth (Lovelock) becomes central to our thinking about development policies as we move towards 2032.  We recognize that all living things are equal and have a great importance to the health of the ecosystem and furthermore ourselves.  On a more practical note, we as individuals evolve to understand the similarities behind the world's religions and move towards a global consciousness.  Under this paradigm corporations will be directly responsible for their product impacts.  That is a so called massive takeback programme for all manufactured products such as televisions, computers, cars and other physical products.  Energy companies will also be responsible for the impacts of their fuels not just emissions from the production of these fuel sources.

ENRM students, do you agree or disagree?

scenario

A scenario is an account or synopsis of a projected course of action, events or situation.In other words,it is a synthetic description of an event or series of actions and events.Scenario is widely used by corporations,companies,army organigations to help understand different ways that future events unfold.According to the Forecasting Dictionary a scenario is "a storey about what hapened in the future".Scenario is known facts about the future.Scenario should not be used to forecast what will happen.(Wikipedia,17 June2007)

Sudents on Global Environment Forum

May I give suggestion to you students in trying to contribute to academic and scientific discussion. Let's make a case of "scenario" as an example:
1) You should state a conceptual definition/meaning of the term "scenario."
2) You should present a philosophical assumption or position upon which "scenario" is based;
3) You should use a real case study or good practice to show how scenario is applied and how it works or does not work; in some cases, just name as many as you could find in literature those companies and institutions that were successful in the use; and
4) From all three above, you form your own conclusion as whether to be critical about or supportive of the use of scenarios.

Can all of you try again? May I also suggest that you should write your comments or postings first on "WORDPAD" then use copy and paste to blogs. In this way you could save your WordPad documents, make directory, and accumulate it for further use. Just like keeping your own journal, you could in later dates use it as a platform for a full paper.

scenario planning

Scenario planning provides an analytical framework and process for understanding complex issues and responding to change.Communities are participating actively in planning and thus a consensus is built up for improved management of increasingly unlimited resources.So we have to apply scenario planning to shape our future environmentally and economically sound for our future generation.

Get serious about addressing the scenario issue

But what is "scenario" planning different from the conventional planning?

Can anybody answer the following questions?:
1. What is the main philosophical assumption of "scenario" uses?;
2. What are "good practices" of the application of scenario planning?

So far I received from those who used the "hear-say" comments about scenario. Can you do it better?

What is so important about "scenario"?

As you might have completed your initial annotated bibliography focusing on "scenario" planning/technique/approach, can we discuss it now?. How and why has it become important in the literature? Who can tell me?

Fourth World

Graduate Students on "Global Environment and National Resource Forum

Adjusted Method of Study

Global Environmental and Natural Resources Forum (June - October 2007)

Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Thailand

10 June 2007

Objective:

The main objective of the adjusted method of study of this course is to develop an approach more effective to learning about global environmental issues and sustainable solutions explored. It can be coined the approach to creating "Collective Intelligence" (CI). Basically, it revolves around students both individually and collectively.

Students are expected to:

1 Select one topic related to the global environmental issue currently are high on public agenda and debate;

2 Take turn on a weekly basis to facilitate discussion on the group BLOG given, by posting and raising questions and issues important enough to generate responses and comments from other students from the class;

3 Contribute to the debates and issue posted by the individual student facilitator in a form of reflection and/or critique or of providing new information and thoughts

4 Be sure that questions and issues posted (by facilitator) and responses (from participating students in class) must be well searched and well conceptualized in a scholar tradition;

5 Give a mark or "vote" to comments from other students.

Grading:

• Facilitators will be marked on the number of fellow students who participate in the debate or issue posted; high marks will be given to those who could bring outside participants and experts to contribution to the discussion of the issue;
• Each student will be graded on the number of contributions made to issues and debates posted by student facilitators;
• This also applies to all Ph.D. students (under my supervision)
  

Course Coordinator: Fourth World; teopy@mahidol.ac.th

Testing

Just testing!