May I give suggestion to you students in trying to contribute to academic and scientific discussion. Let's make a case of "scenario" as an example:
1) You should state a conceptual definition/meaning of the term "scenario."
2) You should present a philosophical assumption or position upon which "scenario" is based;
3) You should use a real case study or good practice to show how scenario is applied and how it works or does not work; in some cases, just name as many as you could find in literature those companies and institutions that were successful in the use; and
4) From all three above, you form your own conclusion as whether to be critical about or supportive of the use of scenarios.
Can all of you try again? May I also suggest that you should write your comments or postings first on "WORDPAD" then use copy and paste to blogs. In this way you could save your WordPad documents, make directory, and accumulate it for further use. Just like keeping your own journal, you could in later dates use it as a platform for a full paper.
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3 comments:
Students should share articles or papers in order to discuss and write a good paper for publication in international journals in the future.
Thanks to the fourth world for creating such kind of Forum with sharing our knowledge through this blog.I want to learn more and discuss through this blog as much as I can.
Akompab commented that;
Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures.They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will be introduced.Scenario analysis has evolved swiftly as a tool for anticipating the future . There fore scenarios do not predict but they paint a picture of possible futures and explore different outcomes that might result if basic assumptions are changed.Hence the relevant question answered by scenarios is not what will happen ,but what might happen and how people could act to counteract or encourage particular events and trends.[GEO outlook 2002-32]
A set of key assumptions , which would have high sensitivity towards defining scenario[s] are made prio to defining the scenario[s].Some of the key assumptions are based on plausible socio-econo political pathways.[Ahsan Uddin 2006].
These key assumtions are often and /or considerations are often stated in a form of verbose statement. Since scenarios are based on assumptions,approximations, and considerations that include social, economic, political, cultural aspects, a scenario can not truely represent a future climate.Rather it should represent a "plausible" future climate in view of facilitating assessments of physical , social, environmental, economic, and human aspects of a geographic region or country.[Ahsan Uddin Ahmed 2006].
A typical example is in Banbladesh where efforts have been made to develope climate change scenarios[ sAhsn 2006] . According to the author, three sets of scenarios have been developed at different stages of the development process.
First is the "speculative scenario development" whereby expert judgments portrayed future climate . Scientist who developed this scenario posed key questions such as;
What would happen to the bio-geo-physical system "if" climate parameters change by a giving extend.Mohab[1989] speculates a genaral surface warming of 0.3-5percent by 2050, by considering a median value of two limits and adding 10cm for local subsidence giving a 100 cm net "sea level".The same study also considered two other very important "decision statements"to construct future scenarios;One dealing with water development in international rivers with sharing options and the other with "no sharing options". Based on this a set of ten composit scenarios have been considered for annalysis.{Haq et al, 1996}.
The second is the "General circulation model"{GCM}. This was also implemented to generate climate change scenarios. The {BUP-CEAR_CRU {1994} study reported 0.5 -2.0 centigrades rise in temperature by the year 2030 under " business as usual " scenarios of IPCC. The study could not draw an inference in relation to change in sea level. How ever it commented that both sedimentation and subsidence were likely to complicate an expected net change along the Bangladesh coast.
Thirdly a "Regional climate model " was develped for climate change scenarios for Brahmaputra basin in Bangladesh.The Hadley Centre Regional [climate] model version 2 {Had CM 2} was run with 50 by 50 km grids . For this basin, slightly increased rainfall was obtained for monsoon and post monsoon periods.{Choudhury et al;2005}Onlike other model results , an increase in water and pre-monsoon rainfall was observed for 2020 and 2050.It was perhaps due to special down scaling techniques considering area averaged values for each parameter for each domain.
Conclusively therefore it is realistic to see that resultant climate change could have adverse effects on the water resources of Bagladesh. Therefore translating the GCM model projections of climate parameters it may be concluded that, there will be susceptibility to aspects like ;increased flooding, moisture stress, during the dry period, salinity during the low flow introduction, which may as a result lead to changes in the physical system like , crop agriculture ,livestock production, coastal shrimp production, and forest vegetation and effects on health.
I strongly hold the opinion that scenarios are necessary tools for future studies and thy should not always be left behind during projections.
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