How to get a community, nation, region, world as a whole to accept a preferred scenario?
UNEP proposed the multiple scenarios as several alternatives. I think UNEP offered the opportunities; - to give more sense of how different trends and countertrends might unfold and interact
- to allow for some test of the robustness of policy and strategy conclusions across different paths of development
- to challenge received wisdom by demonstrating the plausibility of several diverse futures
- to introduce substantially different "worldviews" concerning what drivers of change are and how they are related together.
I think four scenarios; Market first, Security first, Policy First, Sustainability first, are interesting scenarios. But, the question is how to get a community, nation, region, world as a whole to accept the policies necessary for a preferred scenario?
As Steven Pinker said “The world’s staggering problems won’t be solved by singing pop songs, denouncing villains, or adopting the proper moral tone, but by figuring out which policies have the best chance of doing the most good.”
For example, if the Thai Government wants to implement policy toward a Sustainability First scenario (which is the preferred scenario in term of decreasing CO2, atmospheric concentrations of CO2, temperature, for example), how the Thai government could persuade business sector, which prefer a Market First scenario (current trend; if every country follows this scenario CO2 emissions is the worst).
If I were one of the Thai Government members, I would discuss the good and bad of both scenarios with the representative of different sectors and policy options to achieve an agreed approach.
What is your preferred scenario? How can you persuade your community, nation, region, world to follow policies under that scenario?
1 comment:
In the real world all four scenarios are prevalent and highly probable. We cannot necessarily push only sustainability or policy scenarios as this would exclude dominant stakeholders. For example, we cannot expect military leaders to give up their passion for weapons and their fear of invasion.
We need to look at all the scenarios simultaneously and for anyone country invite representatives from different sectors to formulate scenarios together. Maybe with this approach leaders will reflect on different perspectives and hopefully see the advantages of sustainability. Personally, I believe we need to look beyond sustainability to a solution which is rooted in universal spiritual beliefs. However, we need to frame spiritual beliefs more in terms of systems thinking (as it is found in many religions) in order for this type of paradigm to gain wider levels of acceptance. Just as GAIA is rejected by many scientists, who prefer earth systems science (Schneider) as it is less mystical and more digestible to reductionists.
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