But what is "scenario" planning different from the conventional planning?
Can anybody answer the following questions?:
1. What is the main philosophical assumption of "scenario" uses?;
2. What are "good practices" of the application of scenario planning?
So far I received from those who used the "hear-say" comments about scenario. Can you do it better?
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9 comments:
scenarios are storylines used as frameworks whereby thinking is focused and challenged to explore and experience alternative realities.they are alternative pictures to the future and how it might develope. Therefore it is important because helps us work out our existing ways and think about better strategies for a new way forward through knowledge sharing.
Scenario planning differs from conventional planning in that , scenario planning is based on different notions rather than adopting a single "most likely" outcome. Also scenario planning encourages "contigent thinking"rather than plans based on single prediction.
Scenario planning is different with conventional planning. Conventional planning is relies on forecasting the future based on the most likely to the trend thus it might be risks.Scenario planning is based on many possible future events and also planners are consider all those possibilities as having an equal potential to occur,outcome might be minimum mismatch.
Scenarios add a less rigid approach to a scenario and provide a more overarching view of the situation according to Graeme Cummings. However, he also mentions that ecosystem scenarios sometimes need to be more mechanistic. In my opinion, a good scenario exercise includes all relevant stakeholders. It cannot be dominated solely by high level executives. It will add value to receive input from low level functionaries in the workplace as well (Oshry-Seeing Systems, Senge-The Fifth Discipline discuss these types of challenges in the business world).
Scenarios are mostly plausible sequence of possible events used to inform future trends, potential decisions or consequences. Therefore In scenario planning,its important to identify and incorporate key drivers of future changes in a particular field.Emphasis is given to future uncertainties and spatial scales,and to come up with a robust policy or a model with a most appropriate plan for a uncertain future.Assessments,predictions and planning should be done based on sustainability principles.
In developing and evaluating scenario planning,(specially a social ecological frame works,) and in application of them,use of participatory approaches and principles is a good practice.
In conventional planning,we used to make the plans based on the past trend of data of an event.But its not reliable to assume that future trends as similar to past.as example;Climate changes,
But in scenario planning,it requirs
planners to consider all possible future scenario analysis and to select the most likely to occur in future .
Scenario planning is different with conventional planning. Scenario planning method studies on the demand of the future, uncertainties (climate change, technique change, changing economic situation or environmental policies. Scenario is extremely important, that is, scenario development supports for education, public information (to raise awareness law-makers, stakeholders, to educate students, public, and citizens). Using scenario to integrate information from different field and explore possible development in the scientific field. Scenario is used in strategic planning, decision support as well. It has great advantages in feasibility, financial benefits.Conventional planning method forecasts the future based on the most likely trend and it is usually get risks and non economical.
Scenario planning is thinking about future & assumption. And in scenario planning we use difference alternative ways and it is flexible methodology of planning ready to accept new ideas.
Scenario planning is thinking about future & assumption. And in scenario planning we use difference alternative ways and it is flexible methodology of planning ready to accept new ideas.
Akompab commented that;
Scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures.They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will be introduced.Scenario analysis has evolved swiftly as a tool for anticipating the future . There fore scenarios do not predict but they paint a picture of possible futures and explore different outcomes that might result if basic assumptions are changed.Hence the relevant question answered by scenarios is not what will happen ,but what might happen and how people could act to counteract or encourage particular events and trends.[GEO outlook 2002-32]
A set of key assumptions , which would have high sensitivity towards defining scenario[s] are made prio to defining the scenario[s].Some of the key assumptions are based on plausible socio-econo political pathways.[Ahsan Uddin 2006].
These key assumtions are often and /or considerations are often stated in a form of verbose statement. Since scenarios are based on assumptions,approximations, and considerations that include social, economic, political, cultural aspects, a scenario can not truely represent a future climate.Rather it should represent a "plausible" future climate in view of facilitating assessments of physical , social, environmental, economic, and human aspects of a geographic region or country.[Ahsan Uddin Ahmed 2006].
A typical example is in Banbladesh where efforts have been made to develope climate change scenarios[ sAhsn 2006] . According to the author, three sets of scenarios have been developed at different stages of the development process.
First is the "speculative scenario development" whereby expert judgments portrayed future climate . Scientist who developed this scenario posed key questions such as;
What would happen to the bio-geo-physical system "if" climate parameters change by a giving extend.Mohab[1989] speculates a genaral surface warming of 0.3-5percent by 2050, by considering a median value of two limits and adding 10cm for local subsidence giving a 100 cm net "sea level".The same study also considered two other very important "decision statements"to construct future scenarios;One dealing with water development in international rivers with sharing options and the other with "no sharing options". Based on this a set of ten composit scenarios have been considered for annalysis.{Haq et al, 1996}.
The second is the "General circulation model"{GCM}. This was also implemented to generate climate change scenarios. The {BUP-CEAR_CRU {1994} study reported 0.5 -2.0 centigrades rise in temperature by the year 2030 under " business as usual " scenarios of IPCC. The study could not draw an inference in relation to change in sea level. How ever it commented that both sedimentation and subsidence were likely to complicate an expected net change along the Bangladesh coast.
Thirdly a "Regional climate model " was develped for climate change scenarios for Brahmaputra basin in Bangladesh.The Hadley Centre Regional [climate] model version 2 {Had CM 2} was run with 50 by 50 km grids . For this basin, slightly increased rainfall was obtained for monsoon and post monsoon periods.{Choudhury et al;2005}Onlike other model results , an increase in water and pre-monsoon rainfall was observed for 2020 and 2050.It was perhaps due to special down scaling techniques considering area averaged values for each parameter for each domain.
Conclusively therefore it is realistic to see that resultant climate change could have adverse effects on the water resources of Bagladesh. Therefore translating the GCM model projections of climate parameters it may be concluded that, there will be susceptibility to aspects like ;increased flooding, moisture stress, during the dry period, salinity during the low flow introduction, which may as a result lead to changes in the physical system like , crop agriculture ,livestock production, coastal shrimp production, and forest vegetation and effects on health.
I strongly hold the opinion that scenarios are necessary tools for future studies and thy should not always be left behind during projections.
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