Sunday, 17 June 2007
scenario
A scenario is an account or synopsis of a projected course of action, events or situation.In other words,it is a synthetic description of an event or series of actions and events.Scenario is widely used by corporations,companies,army organigations to help understand different ways that future events unfold.According to the Forecasting Dictionary a scenario is "a storey about what hapened in the future".Scenario is known facts about the future.Scenario should not be used to forecast what will happen.(Wikipedia,17 June2007)
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Scenarios come in sets, reflecting the fundamental uncertainty in the situation. Scenarios can be used to identify a number of possible alternative futures. They show how different interpretations of the driving forces of change can lead to different possible futures. Why would we be interested in alternative scenarios of future? scenarios can help planning and decision-making by describing future conditions. Also decision are based on "mental maps" of the future. So scenarios can help limitations by providing mental maps(van der Heijden 2005).
You need to go beyond Wikipedia. As a training scientist like you. You need to read and use several more sources before you can convince people.
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